Yevhen Malyi,

Candidate of Physics and Mathematics, nuclear energy expert,

Member of the Scientific and Analytical Section of the Ukrainian Nuclear Society,

Senior Researcher at the Institute for Nuclear Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Long cycles and what the atom has to do with it

In the middle of the 20th century, George Modelski, a well-known American political scientist of Polish origin and professor emeritus at the University of Washington, developed the concept of long cycles of global politics and the evolution of the global economic system caused by them. In his research, he tried to explain why some countries had a dominant position. In contrast, others were oppressed, and why the situation could eventually change dramatically at some intervals within 50-70 years.

Without getting too deep into Modelski's Long Cycle Theory and considering his model in a simplified way, then in some historical periods, the advantage of certain countries was military, economic, or political innovations that could turn a state into a superpower for decades (or even centuries). The developed military and merchant fleets in Spain and Portugal at the turn of the 16th and 17th centuries allowed them to dominate the sea and discover new lands by creating colonies. The Industrial Revolution, at the turn of the XVII-XIX centuries, began in Britain and allowed Foggy Albion to become a leading industrial country...  Of course, this logical series can be continued.
If you ask ordinary people, what they consider the main components of innovation, success, and prosperity, the answer mostly will be something like “people” or “technology.” In reality, the key factor in development has always been resources, particularly energy resources. In the modern globalized world, these innovations and advantages no longer seem so important and obvious because all technologies are available and thus present on global markets. In other words, with economic capacity and political expediency, a state can successfully develop trade, build state-of-the-art merchant ships, and develop innovative high-tech industries. Of course, all of this is true, but there are some nuances.  

The example of the development of the peaceful atom, which began in a historical perspective quite recently, is very illustrative: the world's first artificial nuclear reactor was built only 82 years ago. However, its impact on the energy sector was enormous, and the world has changed dramatically since then.

The arduous journey to nuclear power

For thousands of years, the only power source was wood, later – coal, and then oil and gas. Nuclear energy has made a sharp turn, both in the perception of the structure of our world and in the understanding of complex physical phenomena and processes that can serve as a source of the huge amount of energy needed by humanity. By having more energy, a geopolitical entity has more production, more opportunities, and, as a result, higher chances for living standards and well-being. Of course, nuclear power has gone through a thorny path of ups and downs – from the nuclear renaissance and the construction of hundreds of power units in the world in a matter of decades to the Chornobyl accident and a temporary moratorium on all nuclear projects. 

Returning to G. Modelski and his theory, we can say that all innovations have had such a difficult path – the largest ships sank in the Atlantic waters, the largest factories exploded or burned to the ground... Nevertheless, this did not stop the development of technology, nor did it stop the development of nuclear power, which became more efficient and, most importantly, safer with each passing decade.

The energy of well-being

In 1990, the United Nations published its first version of the Human Development Index (HDI) as part of the United Nations Development Program. This indicator consists of life expectancy, education level, and per capita income. Each country is rated on a scale from 0 to 1, which reflects a low or high level of development.

Since 1990, when the research began, the level of human development (of individual countries) has been directly correlated with the level of consumption and, consequently, electricity production. A direct correlation has been established between the overall living standards and electricity consumption. In short, the higher the level of consumption, the higher the HDI, which indicates the importance of electricity production.

However, are there many options for baseload projected generation? Actually, no. After all, if we exclude fossil coal, oil, and gas, which, even with the most efficient combustion, pollute the environment and increase carbon emissions, the only choice is nuclear power. That is why the world is currently experiencing a new “nuclear renaissance”, with more than 60 new power units under construction and the same number in the pipeline, while the topic of small modular reactors and their prospects is being discussed at almost every turn. The next historical cycle will likely be nuclear.